Tuesday, June 16, 2009

16 June Media Summary

Early Bird summary

Tuesday’s Early Bird leads with an article from the Washington Post, echoed by USA Today and the Christian Science Monitor, reporting that U.S. combat troops will leave all Iraqi cities by their scheduled deadline of the end of this month, including Mosul, which remains the country's most dangerous urban area, the commander of U.S. forces said Monday.American combat troops must pull back from cities by June 30 under a U.S.-Iraqi security pact that took effect this year. But Gen. Ray Odierno, the American commander, said this year that troops might remain in Baghdad and the northern city of Mosul because of continuing security concerns.

The Los Angeles Times and Washington Post both report that U.S. Army Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal formally assumed command Monday of American and North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops in Afghanistan, taking charge at one of the most violent junctures of the 8-year-old conflict.In addition to confronting an increasingly powerful Taliban insurgency and presiding over the largest American troop buildup of the war, the four-star general faces rising Afghan anger over civilian deaths and injuries in the course of the fighting.McChrystal, speaking at the heavily fortified headquarters of NATO's International Security Assistance Force, described the safeguarding of civilian lives as central to the foreign forces' mission in Afghanistan.

The Obama administration will order the Navy to hail and request permission to inspect North Korean ships at sea suspected of carrying arms or nuclear technology, but will not board them by force, senior administration officials said Monday, according to the New York Times.The new effort to intercept North Korean ships, and track them to their next port, where Washington will press for the inspections they refused at sea, is part of what the officials described as “vigorous enforcement” of the United Nations Security Council resolution approved Friday.The planned American action stops just short of the forced inspections that North Korea has said that it would regard as an act of war. Still, the administration’s plans, if fully executed, would amount to the most confrontational approach taken by the United States in dealing with North Korea in years, and carries a risk of escalating tensions at a time when North Korea has been carrying out missile and nuclear tests.

The Washington Post reports that South Korean President Lee Myung-bak flew to Washington for talks on Tuesday with President Obama, from whom Lee is expected to seek a written promise of continued U.S. nuclear protection.The United States has maintained a nuclear umbrella over South Korea since the Korean War, and it periodically reaffirms that protection, although not at the level of a White House statement.North Korea tested its second nuclear bomb last month, triggering worldwide condemnation and cranking up anxiety in Seoul. When the U.N. Security Council imposed new sanctions on the North for that test, the government of Kim Jong Il quickly responded in the fist-shaking manner that has characterized its behavior this year.

Pakistan has been fighting militants for weeks in a green valley north of the capital, the New York Times reports. Even as that battle is fought, it is now gearing up for the most decisive test of the war, in the rugged western mountains that are the Taliban’s prime sanctuary.The area, South Waziristan, presents the toughest challenge for Pakistan in its fight to curb its growing insurgency. It is home to Baitullah Mehsud, Pakistan’s enemy No. 1, who leads the Taliban here and has engineered dozens of suicide bombings in recent years.Mr. Mehsud now has thousands of fighters entrenched in mountain terrain that is nearly impossible for conventional armies to navigate, and past efforts to capture him, most recently last year, have failed.What is more, Pakistan is fighting the Taliban in several areas already and has committed 22,000 troops to its campaign in the valley, called Swat. While military officials say troop strength is not a problem, more forces will be needed to hold newly taken areas, which have gone unpatrolled for years.

The New York Times also reports that hundreds of thousands of people marched in silence through central Tehran on Monday to protest Iran’s disputed presidential election in an extraordinary show of defiance from a broad cross section of society, even as the nation’s supreme leader called for a formal review of results he had endorsed two days earlier.Having mustered the largest antigovernment demonstrations since the 1979 revolution, and defying an official ban, protesters began to sense the prospect — however slight at the moment — that the leadership’s firm backing of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had wavered.The massive outpouring was mostly peaceful. But violence erupted after dark when protesters surrounded and attempted to set fire to the headquarters of the Basij volunteer militia, which is associated with the Revolutionary Guards, according to news agency reports. At least one man was killed, and several others were injured in that confrontation.On Tuesday, Radio Payam, a state-owned station, reported that seven people were killed and others were wounded Monday night when “several thugs” tried to attack a military post and vandalize public property in the same area as the demonstration earlier in the day, according to Agence France-Presse.

A report broadcast on CNN says that U.S. commanders in the Persian Gulf, in the Middle East have received a classified message during this election time frame in Iran, warning them to exercise prudence, caution and restraint. For a full transcript of the report, follow this link.
National Journal’s Congress Daily PM reports that the Defense Department needs to better coordinate its cybersecurity operations but has no interest in replacing the Homeland Security Department as the primary agency for protecting federal civilian networks, Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn said today.The Pentagon's second-highest ranking official said his department is considering a plan to create a cybersecurity command, which would serve as the main point for protecting military (.mil) networks and organizing offensive cyberwarfare capabilities.

A military judge has ordered a news reporter to obey a subpoena and testify in the case of a Camp Pendleton Marine who is facing a court-martial for an interview he gave over the handling of classified material, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune.In a 12-page ruling released yesterday, Cmdr. Kevin O'Neil said the rights of the accused, Pvt. Gary Maziarz, to a fair trial outweigh the First Amendment rights claimed by Rick Rogers, a reporter for The San Diego Union-Tribune.Maziarz is facing a charge of willfully disobeying a direct order. Prosecutors say he was under orders not to discuss his role in a ring of Marines who passed top-secret intelligence files about individuals under surveillance to a Los Angeles civilian law enforcement agency.In 2007, Maziarz pleaded guilty to mishandling classified material and theft of government property, and was released from the brig last July. Afterward, Rogers interviewed him for a report that was published in November.

GovExec.com reports that a New Hampshire Democrat is set to introduce an amendment to the fiscal 2010 defense authorization bill requiring the Pentagon to return employees covered under the National Security Personnel System to the General Schedule within one year unless the Defense secretary can demonstrate improvements to NSPS, union officials said on Monday.The amendment by Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H., would apply similar restrictions to the pay-for-performance system that covers Defense Department intelligence employees, the union representatives said. Shea-Porter's office could not immediately be reached for comment.The International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers, the National Federation of Federal Employees and the American Federation of Government Employees confirmed that Shea-Porter planned to introduce the amendment on Tuesday during a House Armed Services Committee markup of the authorization bill.

Media summary

1. Leading newspaper headlines: The papers continue to give top billing to Iran, where hundreds of thousands of protesters ignored a ban and marched through central Tehran to protest the result of Friday's presidential election. (Slate Magazine)
2. USJFCOM creates program for small unit excellence: U.S. Joint Forces Command (JFCOM) is creating a National Program For Small Unit Excellence in response to the demands of the Afghanistan strategy that emphasizes small high- performing ground units, and how the future joint force will operate, a command official said. (Defense Daily)
3. Pentagon to probe cyberdefense in QDR: The Quadrennial Defense Review will address cybersecurity in a variety of ways as the threat of network attacks against the Pentagon grows, Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn said Monday. The department faces attacks against military and defense networks that could disrupt military networks, Lynn said at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event in Washington on the Defense Department's role in cybersecurity. (Inside Defense)
4. Troops mass for onslaught on Taliban in ‘bin Laden’s mountain stronghold’: Pakistan was mobilizing troops and artillery Monday to launch a massive offensive against Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, in his mountain stronghold of South Waziristan — also believed to be the hiding place of Osama bin Laden. (London Times)

Leading newspaper headlines

The papers continue to give top billing to Iran, where hundreds of thousands of protesters ignored a ban and marched through central Tehran to protest the result of Friday's presidential election. It was the largest unofficial demonstration since the 1979 Islamic revolution and came mere hours after the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ordered an investigation into allegations of fraud in the voting process. While most of the protests were largely peaceful, the day ended in bloodshed when members of a pro-government militia fired into a crowd. The Los Angeles Times catches late-breaking news that Iran's state radio reported today that seven people were killed after protesters tried to "attack a military site." The Wall Street Journal notes unconfirmed reports from "a student-run news service" that five students were killed Sunday night in raids at Tehran University carried out by pro-government militias. The New York Times and LAT front breathtaking pictures of the "broad river of people" (NYT) that took to the streets yesterday and marched slowly from Revolution Square to Freedom Square. The Washington Post points out that there were reports of protests and clashes with police in other cities besides Tehran.
USA Today goes with a photograph from Iran at the top of its front page, but dedicates its lead spot to President Obama's speech before the American Medical Association to garner support for his efforts to overhaul the nation's health system. Obama took aim at those who say he wants the government to take over health care by saying that they "are not telling the truth." He made sure to emphasize that a public coverage plan would not be "a Trojan horse for a single-payer system."
In addition to calling for an investigation of the alleged electoral fraud, Ayatollah Khamenei also tried to calm protesters by meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi, the main opposition candidate. But opposition supporters weren't buying it and saw Khamenei's moves as simply an effort to buy time and hope the protests die down naturally. Mousavi's wife had told supporters that the march had been canceled because they expected swift repression from government forces. But people gathered anyway, and many more quickly joined when it became clear the police weren't going to get involved. Mousavi made a brief appearance and told the crowd he didn't have much faith in the independence of the Guardian Council's investigation into the voting.
It seems the NYT and WP reporters may have been at different sides of the huge march. While the NYT takes pains to emphasize that the "people marched in silence" and "the crowd quickly hushed" anyone who belted out an occasional shout or chant, the WP describes it as a rowdy affair, with "ecstatic" crowds, and lots of chanting and clapping. Regardless, the "diverse gathering refuted the charge … that Mousavi's support was drawn from the wealthy and educated in northern Tehran," notes the LAT. The marchers were from different generations and social classes, and there were even some families with children.
Deadly violence erupted after dark when members of the Basij, a pro-government militia group, fired onto a crowd from a rooftop. The WP says it's not clear whether the shooting began after the crowd threatened to storm Basij's headquarters. But after the shooting, protesters set fire to part of the building and several motorcycles. A spokesman for the Guardian Council urged Iranians to be patient while they investigated the claims of election fraud. More trouble could be in store today. Mousavi's supporters have called for a general strike today, and the LAT notes that a pro-government rally was announced for 4 p.m. today at the same site where an opposition rally is set to begin an hour later. Early morning wire stories report that the spokesman for the Guardian Council announced it will re-count some ballot boxes from the election.
President Obama, in his first public comments on the situation, said he was "deeply troubled" by the violence in Iran. "I can't state definitively one way or another what happened with respect to the election," Obama said. "But what I can say is that there appears to be a sense on the part of people who were so hopeful and so engaged and so committed to democracy who now feel betrayed."
In a front-page analysis, the NYT states that Khamenei's move to quickly declare President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner of the election involved "a rare break from a long history of cautious moves." Although there seems little doubt that the Council of Guardians will simply uphold Ahmadinejad's victory, by calling for the investigation Khamenei "has opened a serious fissure in the face of Islamic rule and one that may prove impossible to patch over." Khamenei is often described as careful but "now faces a nearly impossible choice," says the NYT. "If he lets the demonstrations swell, it could well change the system of clerical rule. If he uses violence to stamp them out, the myth of a popular mandate for the Islamic revolution will die."
So, what about the results? Any chance Ahmadinejad actually won the election? The Post looks into this question and says that while there are "many signs of manipulation or outright fraud" in the election results, "the case for a rigged outcome is far from ironclad." The ballots were certainly counted very quickly, and at several polling places representatives of opposition candidates weren't allowed to oversee the initial counting. "There are suspicious elements here, but there's no solid evidence of fraud," one expert said.
As Obama tried to get the American Medical Association on his side, it also became clear that the plans for health care currently being discussed would not only cost a lot of money but might not even solve the problem of the uninsured. In a front-page piece, the NYT notes that a plan that was presented by Democratic leaders in Congress would cost at least $1 trillion over 10 years and only reduce the number of uninsured by 16 million people, leaving around 36 million people uninsured. Lawmakers are trying to figure out how to pay for this, and some think there's no option but to increase taxes. House Democrats are considering a tax on soft drinks, and the long-discussed idea of creating a value-added tax is also apparently on the table.
The LAT fronts new documents made public yesterday that reveal Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, the self-proclaimed Sept. 11 mastermind, said during hearings at Guantanamo that he gave the CIA false information just so they would stop applying harsh interrogation techniques. "I make up stories," Mohammed said as he described how interrogators asked him about Osama bin Laden's location. "Where is he? I don't know. Then, he torture me," Mohammed recounted. "Then I said, 'Yes, he is in this area.' " In his statements, Mohammed also gives the impression that he said some people belonged to al-Qaida even though he didn't know, just to avoid abusive interrogation sessions. Of course, there's no way to corroborate anything Mohammed said, but he is one of the detainees who we now know was repeatedly subjected to waterboarding.
Meanwhile, the WP highlights that another detainee who was repeatedly subjected to waterboarding, Abu Zubaida, apparently had to endure abusive interrogations because the CIA thought he was someone else. In transcripts from a 2007 hearing, Abu Zubaida said his jailers told him they thought he was al-Qaida's No. 3 but later realized he was a glorified nobody. "They told me, 'Sorry, we discover that you are not Number 3, not a partner, not even a fighter,' " Abu Zubaida said. Although he was described as "al-Qaida's chief of operations" in 2002, officials later came to the conclusion that he was just a "fixer" and wasn't even a member of al-Qaida. Abu Zubaida said he had to go through "months of suffering and torture" based on that false assumption. He was waterboarded 83 times.
The NYT hears word that the Obama administration will order the Navy to inspect North Korean ships that are suspected of carrying forbidden materials. The Navy won't be boarding the ships by force, but if permission is refused, the ship would be reported to the Security Council and the Navy would track the ship to its next port and continue pressuring for inspectors to be allowed on board. North Korea has previously said that any forced inspections would be seen as an act of war. If the administration carries out this plan, it "would amount to the most confrontational approach taken by the United States in dealing with North Korea in years," notes the NYT.

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USJFCOM Creates National Program For Small Unit Excellence
By Ann Roosevelt
Defense Daily
June 16, 2009

U.S. Joint Forces Command (JFCOM) is creating a National Program For Small Unit Excellence in response to the demands of the Afghanistan strategy that emphasizes small high- performing ground units, and how the future joint force will operate, a command official said. "We feel a very, very strong moral obligation," to raise the small unit standard of excellence, Maj. Gen. Jason Kamiya, commander of the Joint Warfighting Center (JWC) at JFCOM, said at a recent Pentagon roundtable.

The new National Program for Small Unit Excellence acknowledges that considering the complexities of the environment and the way the joint force will fight in future conflicts, "there is a great need for decentralization of command and control at the lowest capable level of empowerment of decision making at the small unit level and small units who are completely adaptable to aggregate against conventional threats and seamlessly disaggregate against irregular or hybrid threats," Kamiya said. While current forces have a good foundation of adaptability, the new program is looking at ways to improve how dispersed units have an effect, a presence, beyond their size, he said.

At the May Joint Warfighting Conference, JFCOM Commander, Marine Gen. James Mattis, said, "We are going to have to take small units and make them much more capable as joint users. No Army squad on the ground should not be able to draw down joint ISR. They should all be able to get joint fires overhead, whether it be a Navy plane or an Army helicopter or a NATO nation's F/A-18. Whatever it is, we have got to be able to make high performing small units that include joint intel and fires because we are going to disperse them more widely."

Kamiya said, in Iraq and Afghanistan, small units have sustained 89 percent of all those killed in action. Additionally, the preponderance of the data shows that from 1950 to the present, four of five killed in action have been infantry, and half of those have been trying to find the enemy. As well, the Afghanistan strategy relies on small, high-performing ground units, to include rifle squads and platoons and special operations personnel.

Raising the bar on small units has to be "nested" with the Department of Homeland Security, which would be the portal to law enforcement and the wider national first responder community, Kamiya said. "We're very, very hopeful that this partnership we have with the Department of Homeland Security will result in benefits both to the military and to the first responder community."

There's a strong operational demand for highly skilled and prepared tactical small units conducting distributed operations, said Kamiya, who saw it first hand during a year spent in Afghanistan commanding Combined Joint Task Force 76 from March 2005 to February 2006. "Jointness is occurring at lower and lower levels," he said. "The capabilities that young squad leaders and platoon leaders and company commanders have at their disposal today were unthinkable during my formative years in the military."

These considerations are not solely for the military, but a growing part of the complexities first responders face. The demands on small units are growing due to the nature of irregular or hybrid war in which small units operate in and among populations, something the special operations forces have always done.

JFCOM Deputy Commander Vice Adm. Robert Harward said at the May conference, "We're working to develop small, highly skilled, not specialized units, which are adaptive and flexible, where we invest in individuals, as we've done in the SOF community. We're doing that now with general purpose forces to have the flexibility to operate in all these realms."

Both Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen, and Mattis have written and testified about the requirement for high-performing small units. The program concept was born in late March, followed by the designation of a small number of JWC personnel to start setting up the organization. Additionally, a series of mini- conferences were held, culminating with a Small Unit Excellence Conference April 28-20.

The mini-forums drew nationally recognized experts from conference co-sponsor DHS, U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM), the Army, Navy, Marines and Air Force and academia. Experts from multiple disciplines examined such things as in extremis leadership and decision-making, resiliency--and the science behind such areas.

Among conference speakers was University of Southern California Football Coach Pete Carroll, who drew analogies between military small units and the physical, intellectual and skills needed by football players to be an effective national championship team. He also drew attention to the fact that the team and special teams consist of about 11 people-- close to the size of an infantry squad or a special forces ODA team. Putting small unit excellence in a different context really opened a lot of eyes, Kamiya said.

The conference generated 400 ideas that, in turn, generated four priority focus areas where the program "must" exert intellectual and resource energy to solve, and work is under way on all of those areas, he said.

- Cross-community integration: identifying activities across the board, correlating and rationalizing them, and develop shared knowledge and understanding at forums with published outcomes, and identify agreed upon gaps and work to close them.

For example, nobody knew about an Office of Secretary of Defense (OSD) Study on Adaptability, or a West Point Study on small unit leadership, but now the wider community is aware of both.

- Collaborative tools and knowledge management: assess web-based technology that allow cross-community collaboration and a centralized or connected data/knowledge repository, and provide it to the community by the end of fiscal year 2010.

Here, the program is studying a U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) tool known as Starfish, a knowledge management tool that might potentially be a building block for further work.

- Assessment and Measurement: assess research on psychological and physical stimuli, and technologies, test technologies to see how they could improve small unit immersive training, objectively measure effectiveness and quantify return on investment, and prepare to transition capabilities to where they're most needed starting in FY '11.

- Spotlight studies on group behavior, assess existing research, identify gaps and prioritize program sponsorship to fill those gaps.

In this area, Army Training and Doctrine Command is conducting a cognitive performance group study of redeployed 101st soldiers, and OSD is doing a collaborative study with the Australian army on complex adaptive systems.

As JFCOM is the joint force integrator, Kamiya said, "I would hope, that given the dots that ought to be connected across the entire community and disciplines, given the body of knowledge that will be able to be added to the body of knowledge already existing in the services and across academia and the sciences that it will provide enough of a compelling argument to cause change and adaptation across the community in how we cultivate and develop our small units.

Such knowledge would be translated to a concept that is tested and validated and then transitioned and flowed into the framework of doctrine, organization, training, leader development, materiel, personnel and facilities. It's a continual cycle of informing and adaptation, Kamiya said. "I see the program as an enabler vice a competitor for resources or whatever...It's not about ownership, it's about shared knowledge and understanding."

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Pentagon To Probe Cyberdefense In QDR As Attacks On Military Computers Rise
By Fawzia Sheikh
Inside Defense
June 15, 2009

The Quadrennial Defense Review will address cybersecurity in a variety of ways as the threat of network attacks against the Pentagon grows, Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn said Monday. The department faces attacks against military and defense networks that could disrupt military networks, Lynn said at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event in Washington on the Defense Department's role in cybersecurity. Pentagon computers are “probed thousands of times a day” and “scanned millions of times a day,” he added, noting that the frequency and sophistication of these attacks are increasing “exponentially.”

Last year, DOD experienced one of the most significant attacks on its military networks, he told the audience. Malicious software infected several thousand computers and forced U.S. troops and defense personnel to give up their external memory devices and thumb drives, “changing the way they use computers every day,” he remarked.

Although such attacks have not cost lives, “they are costing an increasing amount of money,” Lynn said. “In a recent six-month period alone last year, the Defense Department spent more than $100 million defending its networks.” The government recently completed a 60-day cyber review, led by White House cybersecurity chief Melissa Hathaway, of the government's computer infrastructure.

Because the country as a whole is unprepared for cyber challenges, network defense will play a central role in the QDR, Lynn said. During the review, DOD will assess current capabilities against requirements and make recommendations for the future. Lynn also said the United States needs doctrine to govern “how we protect cyberspace as a domain, how our forces are designed and trained to protect our networks.”

The QDR will look at three types of activities involving war-gaming and scenario-playing, he said. “One is just the kind of conventional military scenarios, and we've added a cyber component to those so that we understand what the implications of Georgia and other harbingers of what we think the future might bring,” he said. Last year, Russia launched an attack on the country in which Georgian government computers were hit.

“Second we have a red team that's led by Andy Marshall, the director of net assessment at the Pentagon, and. . . Gen. Jim Mattis,” the head of U.S. Joint Forces Command, he said. “And they are doing a red team analysis of those same scenarios and may have an even heavier emphasis on cyber scenarios.”

DefenseAlert first reported on the red team analysis on May 13. Moreover, the Pentagon is consulting its own cyber experts to think about some “stand-alone cyber scenarios” that may be incorporated into the review, he said.

However, he said, DOD is pursuing a number of other initiatives prior to the completion of the QDR. As an example, the fiscal year 2010 budget will triple the number of graduating cyber experts from 80 to 250 a year, Lynn told the audience.

In addition, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency plans to develop a cyber security range in the next fiscal year that would allow government agencies to test cyberdefense scenarios, he noted. The Pentagon is also still considering the creation of a sub-unified cyber command under U.S. Strategic Forces Command, Lynn said.

“As of today, [Secretary] Gates has not made the final decision on this command,” he said. “Such a command would not represent the militarization of cyberspace. It would in no way be about the Defense Department trying to take over the government's cybersecurity effort.” Gates is still “evaluating proposals,” Lynn said, while the Joint Staff is “working out the details of how this command would work and what the reporting relationships are.”

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Troops Mass For Onslaught On Taliban In 'bin Laden's Mountain Stronghold'
By Jeremy Page and Rehmat Mehsud
London Times
June 16, 2009

Pakistan was mobilizing troops and artillery Monday to launch a massive offensive against Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, in his mountain stronghold of South Waziristan — also believed to be the hiding place of Osama bin Laden. Military officials told The Times that the Government had ordered the attack and the military was pounding Mr. Mehsud’s territory with heavy artillery and airstrikes and negotiating alliances with rival tribal leaders in preparation for a ground assault. They also said that the army — already fighting the Taliban in Swat and several other parts of northwestern Pakistan — was engaged in its biggest military operation since the 1971 war that split Pakistan and created Bangladesh.

The army has given no schedule for the new attack, but locals reported seeing troop columns moving towards South Waziristan. Analysts say that they expect the army to capitalize on its high levels of public support and launch its offensive within the next few weeks. “For the last few days, thousands of security forces with reinforcements of tanks and artillery are being shifted there,” one local intelligence official said. “It’s the first time in history we have seen and heard about such a big military movement into South Waziristan.”

Zahiruddin Khan, 25, a shop owner in the town of Tank, just outside South Waziristan, said he had seen army convoys heading towards the region and many families fleeing in the opposite direction in the past few days. That will be welcome news for the United States, which has been pushing the Pakistani Army for years to take on Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters sheltering in North and South Waziristan, both of which border Afghanistan.

Some concerns have been raised that the new assault might overstretch the army before it has consolidated recent gains in the offensive it launched against the Taliban in Swat in late April. Aid workers also worry that it will create another 500,000 refugees, adding to the 2.5 million who have already fled fighting in the northwest in the last year. “If that happens you have the makings of a very serious problem indeed,” said Shaheen Chughtai, of Oxfam in Pakistan.

The Government gave the order to attack Mr. Mehsud after he claimed responsibility for a spate of suicide bombings in revenge for the Swat operation. “Baitullah Mehsud is the root cause of all evils,” said Owais Ghani, the Governor of North West Frontier Province. Major-General Attar Abbas, the army spokesman, said that the exact timing of the operation, the number of troops and other details were still being worked out.

Military sources said that the aim would be to kill or capture Mr. Mehsud and his key lieutenants as they posed the greatest threat to Pakistan. Mr. Mehsud, who has a $5 million (£3 million) U.S. bounty on his head, is also blamed for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the former Prime Minister and late wife of Asif Ali Zardari, the President.

Mr. Mehsud leads Tehrek-e-Taliban Pakistan — also known as the Pakistani Taliban — and is believed to have 10,000 to 20,000 men under his command, mostly from the Mehsud tribe. Under U.S. pressure, the army has launched several offensives against him and other militant leaders in North and South Waziristan since 2004, but each has ended in a short-lived peace deal.

When the army attacked Mr. Mehsud last year it stopped because of fears of civilian casualties and because he had surrounded a fort with about 300 Pakistani troops inside. The army is also hoping that the U.S. will provide night vision equipment for its fighter jets and attack helicopters in time for the operation. With or without that support, analysts say that the fighting in South Waziristan will be far fiercer than in Swat, as the former has been controlled by the militants for most of the past eight years.

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Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Media Summary 9 June 2009

Marine Night story and photos now posted at http://www.marines.mil/:
http://www.marines.mil/units/marforcom/Pages/MarineNight2009.aspx





NORFOLK, Va.-Col. Christopher McCarthy, ACS/G-3/5/7, addresses a group of retired, reserve, active-duty and civilian Marines at a pre-game dinner at “Hits in the Park” restaurant at Harbor Park in Norfolk, Va. prior to the start of “Marine Night 2009”, June 6., Dennis Neal, 6/6/2009


NORFOLK, Va.-Sgt. Christopher House of Headquarters Service Battalion winds up to deliver the ceremonial first pitch of the game between the Norfolk Tides and Toledo Mud Hens at the annual “Marine Night” held June 6 at Harbor Park in Norfolk, Va., Dennis Neal, 6/6/2009


Norfolk baseball team honors USMC at Marine Night 2009
Story Date 6/6/2009 By Dennis Neal, Unit Marine Forces Command
NORFOLK, Va. —
Marines past and present were in the spotlight June 6 as the Norfolk Tides, a local minor league baseball team and farm team for the Baltimore Orioles, honored the Marine Corps with the Tides’ annual Marine Night.
The festivities began on the field at Harbor Park here with the 2nd Marine Air Wing Band from Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point, N.C., performing a medley of jazzy tunes and patriotic standards, culminating with a rendition of the Marine Corps Hymn that had audience members clamoring for more.
Marines from the 3rd Fleet Antiterrorism Security Team (FAST) Company, based at Naval Station Norfolk, Va., and Marine Air Control Squadron 24, based in Virginia Beach, Va., provided static displays of Marine Corps vehicles outside the stadium. Inside, FAST Company Marines wowed park-goers with an array of Marine Corps infantry weapons that visitors could inspect and handle under the guidance of their Marine hosts. Recruiters attached to Recruiting Station Richmond units serving the Hampton Roads area also interacted with visitors to the park, as bagpipers and drummers with the Tidewater Pipes and Drums provided ancient Celtic rhythms along the Harbor Park Terrace.
Col. Chris McCarthy, head of Marine Corps Forces Command (MARFORCOM) Plans, Policies and Operations Department, was honored as the senior Marine officer present, with McCarthy and Tides Manager Gary Allenson exchanging Marine Corps and Norfolk Tides ball caps. Sgt. Christopher House, MARFORCOM Marine of the Quarter, threw the ceremonial first pitch of the game.
Elsewhere on the field, the Headquarters Service Battalion Color Guard from MARFORCOM and the Staff Sgt. Jason D. Whitehouse Unit of Young Marines, from Virginia Beach, Va., provided spectators in the over 12,000-seat capacity Harbor Park stadium an exhibition of marching skills.
Prior to the Tides and Toledo Mud Hens facing off in the first of a four-game series (won by the Mud Hens 1-0), the 2nd Marine Air Wing Band brought the crowd to their feet with a stirring orchestral rendition of the National Anthem.
All in all, it was an impressive night of tribute, not only for Marines past and present, active, reserve, and retired who were in attendance, but for all who were present for the ninth annual Marine Night at Harbor Park with the Norfolk Tides.


NORFOLK, Va.-The Headquarters Service Battalion Color Guard and the Staff Sgt. Jason D. Whitehouse Young Marines Unit from Virginia Beach take the field at Harbor Park in Norfolk, Va. prior to the start of “Marine Night 2009.”, Dennis Neal, 6/6/2009



Early Bird summary
Tuesday’s Early Bird leads with an article from the Washington Post reporting that U.S. military personnel on the ground in western Afghanistan and in the air failed to follow established procedures in a battle with the Taliban early last month that killed dozens of Afghan civilians, Pentagon and other Obama administration officials said yesterday.During the battle, a Marine "quick-reaction" force came to the aid of an Afghan army unit attacking Taliban forces. Among the rules violated or poorly followed were poor initial planning for combat in a populated area and the dropping of a 2,000-pound bomb from a B-1 bomber on a building without proper visual and ground confirmation of the target, officials said.Afghan government officials and human rights organizations have variously estimated that between 97 and 140 civilians were killed in the battle, in Farah province. Results of a major military investigation, presented yesterday to Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, are to be released in summary form later this week, one Pentagon official said.
Some 10,000 Marines have poured into southern Afghanistan in the past six weeks, the military said Monday, transforming this once small base in the heart of the country's most violent province, Helmand, into a desert fortress, according to the Associated Press.A statement from the military confirmed the U.S. has fully deployed the first wave of 21,000 additional troops President Barack Obama ordered to Afghanistan this year to help stanch an increasingly violent Taliban insurgency.The 2nd Marine Expeditionary Brigade, normally based at Camp Lejeune, N.C., will battle the Taliban as well as train and fight alongside Afghan security forces."This is where the fight is, in Afghanistan," said 1st Sgt. Christopher Watson, who like many of the troops was recently deployed in Iraq. "We are here to get the job done."
London’s Daily Telegraph reports that heavy weapons continue to stream across the Afghan border from Iran despite US President Barack Obama’s attempts to enlist Tehran’s help in fighting the insurgency, Afghan officials have said.Border police say they regularly intercept consignments of anti-tank mines and mortars bound for militants fighting Nato-led forces.A shipment seized on May 23 along Afghanistan’s 580-mile western frontier contained dozens of anti-tank mines. “That’s a regular occurrence,” the official told The Daily Telegraph. “It tends to be heavier weapons like mines and mortars rather than Kalashnikovs.”
The San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Obama administration is pressing for new U.N. steps aimed at cutting off North Korea's ability to peddle its nuclear wares, including an arrangement to interdict air and sea shipments of nuclear materials and hardware to and from North Korea.The core U.S. concern is that North Korea, in cementing its position as a nuclear power, could accelerate the global spread of nuclear know-how and weapons, along with ballistic missiles.But if the U.N. effort provides authority to forcibly board vessels in international waters on suspicion of carrying banned materials, as advocated by the United States, it could prompt a violent reaction from the North Koreans. North Korea has said publicly many times that U.N. penalties would amount to an act of war.
North Korea’s recent nuclear testing and missile launches combine with questions of who will succeed Kim Jong Il, the country’s leader, to create a “pretty dangerous” mix, the top U.S. intelligence official said, according to Bloomberg.com.“Any time you have a combination of this behavior of doing provocative things in order to excite a response, plus succession questions, you have a pretty dangerous, potentially dangerous mixture,” Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair said late yesterday.He told an audience of about 200 people at an event in Washington he was concerned about North Korea’s behavior, which follows “a fairly familiar pattern of doing something outrageous and then expecting to be paid for stopping” it.
Agence France-Presse reports that US Defense Secretary Robert Gates is set to depart for Europe for talks with NATO allies amid a concerted push by Washington to reverse the course of the seven-year-old war in Afghanistan.The visit comes as thousands of American reinforcements pour into the fragile Asian nation in a bid by US President Barack Obama to gain the upper hand in a conflict that commanders say has turned into a stalemate.Most of the 21,000 additional US troops are heading to the south, a Taliban stronghold and the center of a thriving opium trade that helps finance the insurgency.Gates is due to discuss the outlook in volatile southern Afghanistan on Wednesday in Maastricht with North Atlantic Treaty Organization counterparts who have troops in the region. He then heads to Brussels on Thursday for a meeting of alliance defense ministers, the Pentagon said.
AFP also reports that Defense Secretary Robert Gates has hit back at critics of U.S. President Barack Obama's national security advisor, saying the former Marine general deserved praise instead of "sniping" over his performance.Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said Gates took the unusual step of requesting an interview with a Washington Post columnist to respond to criticism from unnamed officials against James Jones, the retired general who serves as Obama's national security advisor.He gave the interview to the Post's David Ignatius "because the secretary firmly believes, as he articulated to Mr. Ignatius, that Gen. Jones is doing a terrific job," Morrell said on Monday.
A former Marine accused of killing a pregnant colleague near his North Carolina base pleaded not guilty during a brief hearing, the Associated Press reports. The former Marine, Cesar Laurean, 22, is charged with first-degree murder in the death of Lance Cpl. Maria Lauterbach, 20, of Vandalia, Ohio, whose burned body was found buried behind Mr. Laurean’s house. Prosecutors said he would not face the death penalty if convicted.
The Baltimore Sun reports that, three weeks before they will induct a fresh batch of plebes, officials at the U.S. Naval Academy expect their Class of 2013 to include far more minorities than any class in the institution’s 164-year history.The class of about 1,200 will include 435 minorities, up 33 percent from the previous year’s class, which had the most minorities until now, according to figures unveiled yesterday at the academy’s Board of Visitors meeting. The academy received 57 percent more applications from minorities than in the previous year, part of a 41 percent increase in overall applications.Vice Adm. Jeffrey Fowler, the academy’s superintendent, attributed the rise largely to intensified recruiting efforts in areas that have traditionally sent few applicants to the academy. Fowler cited a new graphic novel about the academy experience, a science, math and technology camp for middle-schoolers and the academy’s summer seminar for prospective applicants as examples of more innovative marketing.
Pakistani tribesmen seeking revenge for a deadly mosque bombing attacked militant strongholds for a second day Monday, while the country's Taliban leader faced rare denunciation from within insurgent ranks, the Washington Times reports.Capitalizing on the anti-Taliban sentiments, the military's top spokesman exhorted all Pakistanis to rise up against militants wherever they found them.Pressure is increasing on militants who have held sway in parts of Pakistan's northwest, with the army already bearing down in an offensive on their one-time stronghold in the Swat Valley region. Talk has now turned to the possibility of another operation against al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters in the nearby tribal belt along the country's border with Afghanistan.
Reuters reports that Pakistan's politicians and armed forces are showing more cohesiveness in the fight against Islamic extremists and public opinion is increasingly on the government's side, the U.S. envoy to the region said on Monday."Public opinion is solidifying behind the government. People are really fed up with what the Taliban and the other extremists have done," Richard Holbrooke told Reuters shortly after arriving in the United States from Pakistan.Pakistan's military has been fighting the Taliban in the Swat valley, northwest of the capital, for more than a month after the militants took advantage of a peace pact to conquer new areas in the region.
The Obama administration objected yesterday to the release of certain Bush-era documents that detail the videotaped interrogations of CIA detainees at secret prisons, arguing to a federal judge that doing so would endanger national security and benefit al-Qaeda's recruitment efforts, according to the Washington Post.In an affidavit, CIA Director Leon E. Panetta defended the classification of records describing the contents of the 92 videotapes, their destruction by the CIA in 2005 and what he called "sensitive operational information" about the interrogations.The forced disclosure of such material to the American Civil Liberties Union "could be expected to result in exceptionally grave damage to the national security by informing our enemies of what we knew about them, and when, and in some instances, how we obtained the intelligence we possessed," Panetta argued.

Media summary

1. Leading newspaper headlines: USA Today and the New York Times lead with, while everyone else fronts, the surprising move by the Supreme Court to temporarily block the sale of Chrysler to Fiat while it considers whether to hear an appeal of the deal. (Slate Magazine)
2. Pakistan to target Waziristan: A curfew has been imposed in an area bordering the Taliban stronghold of Waziristan ahead of a military operation there, officials say. (BBC)

USA Today and the New York Times lead with, while everyone else fronts, the surprising move by the Supreme Court to temporarily block the sale of Chrysler to Fiat while it considers whether to hear an appeal of the deal. In a 53-word order, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg gave no hints as to whether the court will hear an appeal by three Indiana pension funds that said they were being treated unfairly in the automaker's bankruptcy plan. By delaying the sale of Chrysler "pending further order," the court could just be saying it needs more time to consider documents filed over the weekend. A long delay could be catastrophic to Chrysler. Fiat has the right to walk away if no deal is reached by Monday, and that could mean Chrysler might be forced to liquidate. But Fiat's CEO said yesterday he "would never walk away" from the Chrysler deal, even if it's not completed by Monday.
The Los Angeles Times and the Wall Street Journal's world-wide newsbox lead with the White House saying it was "engaged through all possible channels" to try to seek the release of the two American journalists who were sentenced to 12 years of hard labor by North Korea's highest court. The sentencing of Laura Ling and Euna Lee complicates the already perilous relationship between North Korea and the United States. Some analysts have raised fears that the recent tensions could make it less likely that the Current TV reporters would be released quickly and they could become "the first Americans subjected to North Korea's gulag-style prisons," notes the WSJ. The Washington Post leads with the Obama administration's latest efforts to keep Bush-era CIA documents under lock and key. CIA Director Leon Panetta told a federal judge that releasing the documents related to the videotaped interrogations of CIA detainees, as well as ones that describe the rough interrogation methods, would hurt national security and help al-Qaida's recruiting efforts.
The Supreme Court's move to at the very least slow down the sale of Chrysler came as a bit of a shock to the White House, particularly since it came less than a week after Obama pretty much declared the automaker's reorganization a done deal. If the justices end up agreeing with some of the claims made by the pension funds, it could also put a damper on plans to rescue General Motors and generally "weaken the government's hand in stabilizing the troubled economy," notes the WP. Indeed, the WSJ reports that the lawyer for the Indiana pension funds is now in talks with GM bondholders who also think they were treated unfairly and want to raise a similar challenge. A professor of corporate law tells the LAT he was "stunned" by the court's move, even if he does think that Chrysler's bondholders have a legitimate complaint, particularly since the United Auto Worker union appears to have received favorable treatment.
The WP tries to read into Ginsburg's 53 words and says the language she "used in her order usually signals a delay of short duration." The WSJ specifies that while the court sometimes issues this type of delays in death-penalty cases, it's rare for the justices to order full emergency reviews as the creditors are requesting. But there's little question that it could also have broad implications particularly since the appeal by the Indiana funds "reads less like a standard business brief than a plea for the Supreme Court to stand up to the Obama administration," notes the LAT.
The LAT points out that the United States is trying to prevent the discussions over the release of the American journalists from being linked to the efforts to end North Korea's nuclear program. But the connection seems inevitable, and many speculate that the isolationist regime will use Ling and Lee as negotiating chips to make sure the United Nations and individual countries don't impose harsh sanctions for its recent nuclear and missile tests. "I think it very unlikely that the North Koreans would let them go without some serious extortion," one expert said. "But giving in to that extortion would fundamentally undermine broader U.S. national security interests." At the very least, that means their release could be delayed, and "the two women face a grim future in a brutal prison system notorious for its lack of adequate food and medical supplies and its high death rate," notes the LAT. The WSJ says that many analysts believe the current standoff "with North Korea is among the most dangerous since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War" and "raises the potential for a miscalculation or escalation."
The WSJ fronts word that the Obama administration appears to be backtracking from its efforts to cut down on the number of agencies that have oversight duties in the nation's financial markets. This suggests that "the current alphabet-soup of regulators will remain mostly intact," notes the paper. While officials have often talked about how the White House wants to streamline the oversight process, it now looks like existing agencies will be given more authority to make sure financial institutions aren't taking on a dangerous level of risk. Although officials caution that nothing has been set in stone yet, the White House seems to have concluded that trying for a large-scale overhaul would spark internal fights and inevitably delay the whole process.
The LAT fronts a look at how Obama is in the unenviable position of trying to convince a skeptical public that the stimulus package is working even as the unemployment rate continues to increase. The money has been slow in coming—only 6 percent of the $787 billion had been spent by May 29—and two top White House advisers had said early this year that if the stimulus package were approved the unemployment rate wouldn't exceed 8 percent. It is now 9.4 percent. While stating that the stimulus package has saved or created 150,000 jobs already, Obama also emphasized that he was "not satisfied" with the pace and said stimulus spending would accelerate in order to create or save 600,000 jobs by the end of the summer.
In the WSJ's op-ed page, William McGurn writes that talking about jobs "saved or created" has "become the signature phrase" for the president, even though the number is utterly meaningless. The number "allows the president to invoke numbers that convey an illusion of precision," but no one actually measures "jobs saved." Even White House officials recognize that the numbers are, at best, an educated guess. "Now, something's wrong when the president invokes a formula that makes it impossible for him to be wrong and it goes largely unchallenged," writes McGurn.
In the NYT, André Aciman writes that while Obama's speech in Cairo "was a groundbreaking event," no one seemed to notice that the president failed to say a word about the "800,000 or so Jews born in the Middle East who fled the Arab and Muslim world or who were summarily expelled for being Jewish in the 20th century." Even though Obama took pains to mention Islam's "proud tradition of tolerance" for other religions, "he failed to remind the Egyptians in his audience that until 50 years ago a strong and vibrant Jewish community thrived in their midst." For Obama to speak in Cairo about tolerance and respect without mentioning the Jews who used to live there "would be like his speaking to the residents of Berlin about the future of Germany and forgetting to mention a small detail called World War II."

Pakistan 'to target Waziristan'
A curfew has been imposed in an area bordering the Taliban stronghold of Waziristan ahead of a military operation there, officials say.
Police in Bannu district say they fear militants may head towards the area
Pakistan's army and paramilitary forces have deployed troops in the semi-tribal area between the northern Bannu district and Waziristan.
"We have imposed an indefinite curfew," local police in Bannu told the BBC.
Waziristan is controlled by Taliban militants and is said to be where al-Qaeda leaders have found safe haven.
The tribal region has been described by US officials as "the most dangerous place on earth".
It is said to harbour some of the world's most wanted men including al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Bannu shutdown
Police told the BBC that they had imposed the curfew in six of the 12 police station districts in Bannu.
"The six police stations all border the semi-tribal areas of Janikhel and Bakakhel, as well as the North Waziristan tribal region," Mohammad Iqbal, head of police in Bannu said.
"We fear that with the impending military operation in Janikhel, the militants may escape towards Bannu."
Mr Iqbal added that all bus stops in Bannu had also been closed in an attempt to thwart any militant attacks.
Local authorities there have sealed also businesses and properties belonging to members of the Janikhel and Bakakhel tribes.
The BBC's Syed Shoaib Hasan in Islamabad said that the Janikhel tribal area has been long known as a hide-out for militants.
Since 2008 it has been the target of several missile strikes in which dozens of Taliban and al-Qaeda militants have been killed.
The authorities say the tribes in the area have aided Taliban militants in their fight against security forces.
Security forces have been steadily increasing their numbers in Janikhel.
"We fear that with the impending military operation in Janikhel, the militants may escape towards Bannu," said Bannu police chief Mohammad Iqbal.
"Hundreds of additional troops have arrived here," Abdul Razzaq, a local administration official in the Janikhel area, told the BBC.
"The entire region has been sealed off from all sides.
"Most of the locals have already left the area and gone to their relatives in Lakki Marwat and Bannu," he said.
Local officials said the military was waiting for the arrival of helicopter gunships before launching the operation.
Some of the remaining locals in the area told the BBC that the army operation in Janikhel would have no effect on the militants as, they say, they fled the area two days ago when the authorities announced a general evacuation.
Taliban target
The army's move comes days after dozens of college students and teachers on their way to Bannu were kidnapped in North Waziristan.
The mass kidnapping took place in Janikhel and is said to have been carried out by local Taliban militants loyal to Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) head Baitullah Mehsud. The kidnapped students have all been released.
The specific target of this operation is said to be Mehsud and his TTP organization, the BBC's Syed Shoaib Khan says.
Security sources earlier told the BBC that the operation in the Janikhel and Bakakhel area is a prelude to a larger operation within the Waziristan tribal region.
There have also been reports that troops have been substantially increased in the town of Jandola which borders South Waziristan, Baitullah Mehsud's home base.
Our correspondent adds that the plan appears to be to encircle and Mehsud and destroy his organisation.
Further north the Swat valley has been the scene of heavy fighting between the Pakistani military and Taliban militants as the army attempts to dislodge militants from their strongholds in that area.

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Tuesday, May 26, 2009

26 May Media Summary


New York Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain looks on as Lieutenant General Richard F. Natonski, Commander of the United States Marine Corps Forces Command, waves to the crowd as he takes the mound to throw out the first pitch before the baseball game between the Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium in New York, Thursday, May 21, 2009. (Associated Press Photo)


Lt. Gen. Richard F. Natonski, commander for U.S. Marine Corps Forces Command, shakes hand with Joe Girardi, manager for the Yankees. Lt. Gen. Natonski threw out the first pitch of the Yankee and Baltimore Game in Yankee Stadium May 22, 2009. He is in New York City as part of Fleet Week 2009. (Official Marine Corps photo by: Cpl. Patrick Fleischman)

Following a reenlistment ceremony at Ground Zero, Lt. Gen. Richard F. Natonski, commander for U.S. Marine Corps Forces Command, visited Ladder 10, located directly across the street from the World Trade Center site, to speak with New York City Fire Department fire fighters, May 10. (Official Marine Corps photo by: Cpl. Patrick Fleischman)

Early Bird summary

Tuesday’s Early Bird leads with a report from the Wall Street Journal stating that American public support for the Afghan war will dissipate in less than a year unless the Obama administration achieves "a perceptible shift in momentum," Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in an interview.Mr. Gates said the momentum in Afghanistan is with the Taliban, who are inflicting heavy U.S. casualties and hold de facto control of swaths of the country.The defense chief has been moving aggressively to salvage the war in Afghanistan, signing off on the deployments of 21,000 American military personnel and recently taking the unprecedented step of firing the four-star general who commanded all U.S. forces there. Mr. Gates, speaking in his cabin on an Air Force plane, said the administration is rapidly running out of time to turn around the war.
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the job of rebuilding Afghanistan is shaping up as an ominous sequel to the massive, mistake-riddled U.S. effort to get Iraq back on its feet.Since 2001, the United States has committed nearly $33 billion for reconstruction projects in Afghanistan. Yet as President Barack Obama sends more troops and aid to quell a growing insurgency, there has been no detailed public accounting of where the money has gone and how effectively it's being spent.As in Iraq, where the U.S. has contributed $50 billion for rebuilding, the flow of money to Afghanistan outpaces the ability to track it. Already, an inspector general looking into the U.S. handling of Afghanistan reconstruction has found worrisome evidence of lax oversight and costly projects left foundering.
Facing the first direct challenge to his administration by an emerging nuclear weapons state, President Obama declared Monday that the United States and its allies would “stand up” to North Korea, hours after that country defied international sanctions and conducted what appeared to be its second nuclear test, according to the New York Times.Mr. Obama reacted to the underground blast as White House officials scrambled to coordinate an international response to a North Korean nuclear capability that none of his predecessors had proved able to reverse.Acutely aware that their response to the explosion in the mountains of Kilju, not far from the Chinese border, would be seen as an early test of a new administration, Mr. Obama’s aides said they were determined to organize a significantly stronger response than the Bush administration had managed after the North’s first nuclear test, in October 2006.
Several interviews were conducted with Adm. Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. For a roundup, please follow this link.


Media summary

1. Leading newspaper headlines: All the papers lead with the swift international condemnation of North Korea's second nuclear bomb test. (Slate Magazine)
2. Frederick J. Karch, 1917-2009: Marine Corps general led first ground troops into Vietnam. (Chicago Tribune)
3. Obama chooses former Marine to head NASA: After weeks of rumor and speculation over who President Barack Obama would choose to lead NASA , he has selected former Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Charles Bolden, Jr. who will be responsible for an interesting future facing the U.S. space agency. (Daily Tech)



Leading newspaper headlines



All the papers lead with the swift international condemnation of North Korea's second nuclear bomb test. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council denounced the test, calling it a "clear violation" of a 2006 resolution. Everyone points out that the quick condemnation from Russia and China was particularly significant, particularly when compared with the long discussions over a response after North Korea launched a long-range missile in April. President Obama called the test a "blatant violation of international law" and said the international community "must take action in response." The Wall Street Journal talks to a senior administration official who said the White House is optimistic that the Security Council will impose strong sanctions, partly due to China's reaction.
The Washington Post hears word that the White House was informed about the test around an hour before it happened, and officials had received several briefings in the past week about the possibility of such an event. The Los Angeles Times points out that while officials insisted Monday's events "did not catch them by surprise," it's bad timing for an administration dealing with so many international crises that it "has yet to develop its formal policy on North Korea." USA Today points out that North Korea's move came a mere five days after Iran carried out its own missile test and might be a sign that the two governments "could be testing the limits of a relatively new president who has emphasized diplomacy over military might." Indeed, the New York Times notes that Obama's aides are well aware everyone is likely to see this as an early test for the young administration, and the White House is determined to "organize a significantly stronger response" than the Bush administration did after North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006. Early morning wire reports reveal that North Korea launched two more short-range missiles today.The WP says that North Korea's test "appears not to have been a significant technical advance over its first underground test three years ago." Although the isolationist regime insisted the test was more successful than the one in 2006, experts say it showed how "North Koreans have not yet mastered the technology of creating a reliable nuclear bomb." It could take weeks to have a reliable estimate on how big the test was, but several papers have some initial analysis. The NYT hears from an administration official that the blast was "a several kiloton event," the WSJ talks to a senior Pentagon official who called it a "relatively small" bomb of around 1.5 kilotons, while an expert tells the WP the test was in the range of 2 to 4 kilotons. That would make it "two to five times" more powerful than the 2006 test but still far less than would be expected if the regime had mastered the technology of creating a reliable nuclear bomb. "You would expect 10 to 20 times that yield," one expert tells the Post. "These guys have not solved the problem." Still, it seems certain that, however small, it still represented a step forward in the country's nuclear capabilities.
Despite the fact that the world powers seem to be pulling together to condemn North Korea's actions, administration officials readily acknowledge that they have limited options in how to proceed. Trying to get North Korea to stop developing nuclear weapons is something that has eluded previous administrations. "We're back to the same problem Bush had," one intelligence official said. "The threat is not that they will shoot off a nuclear weapon; it's that they will sell nuclear material." The NYT details that the "most powerful untapped sanction" available to the administration may be one that was authorized after the 2006 test that permits nations to inspect all shipping into and out of the country for nuclear materials. "Other than having the Chinese cut off their oil, it might be the only step that would show them we are serious," a senior official said.
The WSJ hears word that the Pentagon believes North Korea purposefully picked Memorial Day for the test to send a message to the United States. "America was going to be memorializing the military and our own history, and boom, they pull this one off," a military official said. But others aren't quite so sure the communist regime's primary purpose was really to send a message to the United States. In a front-page analysis, the LAT says that while North Korea's previous tests and missile launches "had a ring of foot-stamping about them" because they could clearly be seen as demands for more attention from Washington, yesterday's "motives seem more complex." Particularly when considering that North Korea appears to have become more assertive in its foreign policy after the country's leader, Kim Jong-il, is believed to have suffered a stroke in August. In addition to considering the international dimensions, some analysts believe the test was Kim's way of boosting support from the military, maybe to ensure that power remains in his family. In its own analysis, the NYT echoes the belief that the test might have been a way for Kim to show solidarity with the military but also notes that some think the "intended audience was North Korea's largely impoverished population." The thinking is that Kim might have wanted North Koreans to believe that he managed to create a powerful country during his years in power.
The real question now is what the young administration will choose to do when confronted with "just the sort of national security crisis that President Obama's campaign rivals warned he would face early in his term," as USAT points out. Besides the fact that there might not be any good options, many believe Iran is going to be taking careful notes to figure out how Obama will deal with future confrontations. "I think North Korea and Iran are very closely comparing strategies," one expert tells USAT. "And whether the moves were coordinated or not, they are watching how the U.S. responds to each."Faced with such complicated questions, the WP's editorial page says it's time to "call Mr. Kim's bluff," and Obama "should simply decline to treat North Korea as a crisis, or even as a matter of urgency." That hardly means ignoring the country or cutting off communication, but there should be "no new economic favors to the North, no further political recognition, no grand visits by the secretary of state to Pyongyang."
Moving on to other stories, the WP fronts the growing fears that the Federal Reserve's "efforts to steer the economy away from a 1930s-era depression would push the country toward '70s-style inflation." The good news that has been coming out of the economy lately is making these fears more pronounced since experts warn that the Fed might have to make a choice between "propping up credit markets today and fighting inflation tomorrow." Considering there's a significant lag time between a change in Fed policy and when it starts showing up in the economy, the central bank might have to act while unemployment is still high and there are still problems in the financial sector, a politically unpalatable option.
In an interesting front-page piece, the NYT takes a look at how service members killed in Iraq and Afghanistan have been given CT scans and autopsies, something that was hardly ever done in previous wars. The information the military has been able to obtain from these procedures has helped it develop better equipment and get useful insight into how medical equipment used in a war zone could be improved. Families of the deceased are informed of the autopsies, and approximately 85 percent to 90 percent request reports.
The WP reports that Obama is likely to announce later this week that he will create a new "cyber czar," a senior official who will be in charge of figuring out ways to protect government and private computer networks. The official will have a broad mandate to deal with a range of issues and will probably be a member of the National Security Council while reporting both to the national security adviser and to the president's senior economic adviser. But the ultimate goal is that this new czar would be able to "pick up the phone and contact the president directly, if need be," an administration official said.

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BRIG. GEN. FREDERICK J. KARCH 1917-2009

Frederick J. Karch, 1917-2009: Marine Corps general led first ground troops into Vietnam

May 26, 2009 WASHINGTON -- Frederick J. Karch, 91, a Marine Corps brigadier general who led the first official ground combat troops into Vietnam, died on May 23 at his home in Arlington, Va.Gen. Karch, a Naval Academy graduate, served in the Marine Corps for 27 years, from before World War II through the Vietnam War. During World War II he was a part of the Pacific island-hopping campaign as U.S. forces fought the Japanese on a succession of islands, with Japan as the ultimate goal. He received the Bronze Star for his actions on Roi-Namur, Sapian, Tinian and Iwo Jima.Two decades later, on March 8, 1965, the "dapper-looking, mustache-sporting veteran of two bloody World War II island campaigns" -- Edward F. Murphy's description in "Semper Fi Vietnam" (2003) -- landed with the 9th Marine Expeditionary Brigade on Red Beach at Da Nang, South Vietnam. Before their arrival, all military personnel in Vietnam were there as "advisers," and Gen. Karch told reporters that the activities of his men would be strictly defensive.Later that year he voiced his respect for the stamina of the opposition fighters known as Viet Cong. "I thought that once they ran up against our first team they wouldn't stand and fight, but they did. I made a miscalculation."
Gen. Karch was born in Carmi, Ill., and attended the University of Illinois for a year before being admitted to the Naval Academy. He was commissioned as a 2nd lieutenant in the Marine Corps in 1940. He graduated from the Army War College in 1961. Gen. Karch served as director of the Command and Staff College at Marine Corps Schools in Quantico, Va., before his retirement in 1967. In the late 1970s he formed the Institute for Professional Education, which offered continuing professional education courses.

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President Obama chooses new NASA leader

Michael Barkoviak - May 26, 2009 6:20 AM


Charles F. Bolden Jr (Source: AFP)

After weeks of rumor and speculation over who President Barack Obama would choose to lead NASA , he has selected former Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Charles Bolden, Jr. who will be responsible for an interesting future facing the U.S. space agency."He's a patriot, a leader and a visionary," Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) recently said in a video statement regarding Bolden. "He understands the workings of NASA and the importance of America remaining a leader in science and technology through space exploration."After graduating from the United States Naval Academy in 1968, Bolden then served as a naval aviator who flew in North and South Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos -- he flew more than 100 Marine combat missions. He joined NASA in 1980 as an astronaut and blasted into orbit during four different space missions during his NASA career that came to an end in 1994. There was concern among several space experts that Obama would become president and take money away from space programs -- a move he is obviously trying to prove will never happen now that Bolden will be given reigns to the agency.Most space experts agree Bolden is qualified for the position, though it'll be interesting to hear his thoughts on several important NASA issues, including the possible shuttle fleet retirement next year. Selecting a former astronaut and military officer may be a sign that, like other nations, the U.S. is interested in blurring the lines between NASA and space research funds used by the government, analysts say. Bolden reportedly is interested in delaying the shuttle fleet's retirement, and that will likely be one of the first topics discussed when he officially becomes the new head of NASA.

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Tuesday, May 19, 2009

19 May Media Summary


Four area high school seniors were honored recently with scholarships presented by the Tidewater Chapter of the National Naval Officers Association (NNOA) and Titus Masonic Lodge 592. From left to right are Vice Admiral Joseph R. Papp Jr., U.S. Coast Guard, Commander, Coast Guard Atlantic Area, recipients Michael Protacio, Bianca Lascano, Aaron Cunningham, Cheri Farrior and Maj. Gen. Cornell A. Wilson Jr., Deputy Commander of U.S. Marine Corps Forces Command, Norfolk. (U.S. Marine Corps Photo by Dennis Neal)

Naval Officers Association awards scholarships to local students
FLAGSHIP Newspaper, Naval Station Norfolk, VA

By Dennis Neal, MARFORCOM
NORFOLK — Four area high school seniors were honored recently at the Vice Admiral Samuel L.Gravely Jr. Scholarship Banquet with scholarships presented by the Tidewater Chapter of the National Naval Officers Association (NNOA) and Titus Masonic Lodge 592. The banquet was conducted, May 9 at the Breezy Point Officers’ Club on board Naval Station Norfolk.
The recipients of the Vice Admiral Samuel L. Gravely Jr. Scholarship from NNOA were:
•Bianca X. Lascano of Suffolk, a senior at Nansemond River High School, who received a $2,500 scholarship. Lascano plans to attend Norfolk State University in Norfolk, majoring in Chemistry. Her parents are Juan and Darlene Lascano of Suffolk.
•Michael Protacio of Norfolk, a senior at Norfolk Academy, who received a $1,500 scholarship. Protacio plans to attend Yale University in New Haven, Conn., majoring in Music. His parents are Patrick and Barbara Protacio of Norfolk.
•Cheri Farrior of Newport News, a senior at Woodside High School, who received a $1,500 scholarship. Farrior plans to attend North Carolina Agricultural & Technical State University in Greensboro, N.C., majoring in Mass Communication. Her parents are Jerry and Cheryl Farrior of Newport News.
The recipient of the 2008-2009 Titus Masonic Lodge 592 Scholarship was:
•Aaron Cunningham of Suffolk, a senior at Menchville High School, who received a $1,000 scholarship. Cunningham plans to attend Old Dominion University in Norfolk, majoring in Business. His mother is Joyce Amey Cunningham, of Suffolk.
The guest of honor and speaker at the banquet was Maj. Gen. Cornell A. Wilson Jr., Deputy Commander of U.S. Marine Corps Forces Command (MARFORCOM) in Norfolk, who challenged the scholarship awardees to “grow in wisdom and compassion” and to be prepared to give back to society and assist other young people as they were being assisted that evening.
Wilson, a 37-year veteran of the U.S. Marine Corps, is a native of Hartsville, S.C. and graduate of the University of South Carolina. As Deputy Commander of MARFORCOM, headquartered at Naval Support Activity, Norfolk, Maj. Gen. Wilson serves as second-in-command of all East Coast-based Marine Corps operating and associated supporting establishment forces – approximately 74,000 military and civilian personnel.
The Tidewater Chapter of the National Naval Officers Association, headquartered in Norfolk has more than 90 members comprised of active duty and retired U.S. Navy, Coast Guard, and Marine Corps officers. Volunteerism allows the Tidewater Chapter of the NNOA to award over $5,000 in scholarships each year to deserving high school seniors in the Hampton Roads area. They have continued to stretch their influence in the community by actively engaging youth at their partner school, Campostella Elementary School in Norfolk, working with veterans, and donating time and resources to provide food for low-income families throughout the year.
The Vice Admiral Samuel L. Gravely Jr. Scholarship Banquet is the culminating event of the NNOA’s annual mission of fostering a positive image of the United States sea services in the local community. The scholarships are awarded in honor of Vice Admiral Samuel L. Gravely Jr., who was the first African American to command a U.S. Navy warship, to be promoted to flag officer rank and to command a Naval fleet. Vice Admiral Gravely Jr.’s illustrious military career spanned 38 years, and he retired from active duty in 1980. He passed away at the National Naval Medical Center in Bethesda, MD, on Oct. 22, 2004.

Early Bird summary
Tuesday’s Early Bird leads with an article from the Los Angeles Times, and a similar story in the Washington Post, that report the U.S. is jeopardizing its chances of success in Afghanistan by mistakenly inflicting casualties on civilians in airstrikes that undermine support for the war among the general population, the top U.S. military officer said Monday.Adm. Michael G. Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, cited the aerial bombing this month of a village in western Afghanistan that killed an undetermined number of civilians as one that has occurred despite changes in procedures aimed at reducing such deaths.
Agence France-Presse reports that Pakistan isn't using U.S. military assistance to expand its nuclear arsenal, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, said on Monday."I am not aware of any U.S. aid that's gone towards nuclear weapons," Mullen told a gathering at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think-tank.He said that the one exception was a portion of U.S. funds in the past few years focused on "improving" security safeguards for Pakistan's nuclear weapons, "which is exactly what we like."
As the Quadrennial Defense Review debates the need for various costly weapons, key military personnel programs must not become budgetary sacrificial lambs, the military's top officer warned today, InsideDefense.com reports.“We’re going through a big debate right now about systems, major acquisition programs – what we should buy for the future,” Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen said in a speech at the Brookings Institution. “What we should buy for the future is to make sure we get it right for our people. That’s healthcare, that’s housing, that’s benefits, that’s the compensation package, that’s bonuses, all those kinds of things.”Mullen commended the attention Marine Commandant Gen. James Conway and Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey have put into these priorities. Addressing such costs guarantees U.S. security in the future, he said.When asked whether the QDR -- which is set to produce recommendations on an array of topics this summer -- should shift a significant amount of money from procurement toward personnel costs, he said it is too early to tell. “We’re not far enough into the QDR to be able to say that -- whether that’s an answer,” he replied.
Pakistan said Monday that troops were locked in bloody street battles with Taliban fighters in the northwest's Swat Valley as rival politicians united behind the offensive to eliminate the Islamist militants, Agence France-Presse reports.The military said its troops are closing in on Swat's capital, Mingora, which is under Taliban control, and has issued a map showing security forces in a pincer movement pushing down from the north and up from the south.[Also Monday, the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees said that 1,454,377 people have been registered as fleeing the fighting since May 2 and that 1,323,427 of them are living outside camps set up for the displaced.
Meanwhile, the Associated Press reports that Pakistani officials responded Monday to an assertion by the top United States military officer that the country was expanding its nuclear arsenal. At a Congressional panel last week, Adm. Mike Mullen, left, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said yes when asked whether there was evidence that Pakistan was adding to its nuclear weapons systems and warheads. On Monday, Pakistan’s information minister, Qamar Zaman Kaira, said: “Pakistan does not need to expand its nuclear arsenal, but we want to make it clear that we will maintain a minimum nuclear deterrence that is essential for our defense and stability.”In comments at a forum in Los Angeles, the Central Intelligence Agency director, Leon E. Panetta, said that the United States did not know the location of all of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, but he was confident that there were “pretty secure” measures to keep them out of the hands of terrorists.
The Obama administration has decided to accept an appeals-court ruling that could undermine the military's ban on service members found to be gay, the Wall Street Journal reports.A federal appeals court in San Francisco last year ruled that the government must justify the expulsion of a decorated officer solely because she is a lesbian. The court rejected government arguments that the law banning gays in the military should have a blanket application, and that officials shouldn't be required to argue the merits in her individual case.The administration let pass a May 3 deadline to appeal to the Supreme Court. That means the case will be returned to the district court, and administration officials said they will continue to defend the law there.
A planned U.S. missile shield to protect Europe from a possible Iranian attack would be ineffective against the kinds of missiles Iran is likely to deploy, according to a joint analysis by top U.S. and Russian scientists, the Washington Post reports.The U.S.-Russian team also judged that it would be more than five years before Iran is capable of building both a nuclear warhead and a missile capable of carrying it over long distances. And if Iran attempted such an attack, the experts say, it would ensure its own destruction."The missile threat from Iran to Europe is thus not imminent," the 12-member technical panel concludes in a report produced by the EastWest Institute, an independent think tank based in Moscow, New York and Belgium.

Media summary

1. Leading newspaper headlines: All the papers lead with news that President Obama will announce new standards for automobile emissions and increase fuel-efficiency targets. (Slate Magazine)
2. The nightmare scenario: Why you should worry about Pakistan’s nukes. (Foreign Policy)

All the papers lead with news that President Obama will announce new standards for automobile emissions and increase fuel-efficiency targets. The new regulations will mark the first time that the government will set rules on automobile emissions and combine it with fuel-economy standards. The rules would require new cars and light trucks sold in the United States to average 35.5 miles per gallon by 2016, four years earlier than required under federal law that was passed in 2007. The Wall Street Journal declares that the move "would accelerate the largest government-mandated transformation of vehicles on the American road since the late 1970s and early 1980s." The Los Angeles Times calls it a "potentially pivotal shift in the battle over global warming" as well as "a vindication of California's long battle to toughen standards."
The Washington Post reports that the new rules came as a result of negotiations between the administration, California, and the auto industry that have been going on "since the first days of the administration." Everyone characterizes this as a win for all the parties involved. California has long asked for a waiver to set its own emissions standards but has now agreed to accept the federal limits, which amounts to pretty much what it wanted except the automakers have more time to adjust. For their part, the automakers get the national standard they have long been craving and will be dropping their legal challenges against California. The new standard, coupled with other requirements Congress passed in 2007, would increase the cost of an average car by $1,300. The New York Times states that the new standard "will create a car and light truck fleet in the United States that is almost 40 percent cleaner and more fuel-efficient by 2016 than it is today." The administration says the new regulation will reduce U.S. oil consumption by 5 percent a year. USA Today points out that if the new rules push automakers to build smaller cars, "highway safety could decline" since they're less safe in crashes.
The LAT and WP front, while everyone covers, claims by the Sri Lankan government that Tamil Tiger chief Velupillai Prabhakaran was killed yesterday, effectively bringing to an and the 26-year civil war that killed around 100,000 people. Throughout his years at the helm of the rebel group, Prabhakaran "created one of the most ruthless and sophisticated insurgencies, with many of the tactics he pioneered becoming standard procedure for militant groups around the world," declares the LAT. The NYT points out that some believe the insurgency will come back using the militant tactics that were a hallmark of its existence, such as suicide bombings. But many others say that without Prabhakaran, the Tigers don't have anyone else to lead them. Everyone points out that it was Prabhakaran's ruthlessness and unwillingness to compromise with the government as he fought for a Tamil homeland that led to the destruction of the movement he had built over the years.
While people in Colombo, Sri Lanka's capital, celebrated in the streets, many within the Tamil community stayed indoors, afraid of what this development could mean for them. Even though many Tamils had long grown wary of the war, they still often saw the Tigers as their "only hope against the discrimination and alleged human rights abuses" of the government, notes the Post. Now many within the Tamil community are worried this victory over the Tigers will translate into violence against them.

The NYT fronts a look at how banks will now be looking at ways they can make more money from some of their best customers. Well, "best customers" might be how you might commonly think of the people who pay their bills in full and on time every month, but they're actually called "deadbeats" in the industry because they don't generate much revenue for the companies. These customers have not only failed to give much revenue to the poor credit card companies, but they dared to demand things like cash-back rewards and frequent flier miles. That may soon be a thing of the past. Now that Congress wants to impose limits on how much the companies can charge riskier borrowers, they're looking at how they can increase revenue from those with good credit. Banks are likely to bring back annual fees, cut back reward programs, and charge interest immediately upon a purchase. Or at least that's what banks want people to believe as they furiously lobby lawmakers, who are discussing a wide variety of rules that could soon be imposed on card companies. "Those that manage their credit well will in some degree subsidize those that have credit problems," said the head of the American Bankers Association.
The NYT fronts word that Zamay Khalilzad, the former ambassador to Aghanistan, might soon take up a powerful position inside the Afghan government. Khalilzad has been in discussion with Hamid Karzai to take on a government position that would essentially be the chief executive officer of Afghanistan. There has been lots of talk that Khalilzad might run for president, but he missed the filing deadline. The move would benefit Karzai, not only because it would help get a potential rival on his side but also because Khalilzad is widely respected in the United States and his appointment would come at a time when the administration has made it obvious that it is growing tired of Karzai. But officials insist the administration had nothing to do with the arrangement.

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The Nightmare Scenario

By Steven R. David

Why you should worry about Pakistan's nukes.

Few who lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962 will forget the fear and apprehension they felt. The world stood on the brink of a nuclear holocaust as U.S. ships imposed a blockade to force Soviet missiles out of Cuba. Everyone heaved a sigh of relief as the Soviets agreed to remove their missiles in exchange for an American pledge not to invade Cuba, but all agreed a cataclysmic nuclear war had been only narrowly averted. Of the lessons that came from this episode, the one that stands out is that never again should the United States be put in a position where its cities are so close to nuclear destruction. Many assumed that lesson had been learned as decades of arms control, détente, and the end of the Cold War seemingly removed the specter of nuclear attack from our collective consciousness.
Well, just when you thought it was safe not to worry about nuclear annihilation, a new crisis has emerged that actually poses a greater threat of an American city being obliterated by a nuclear weapon than anything that occurred during the Cold War: As Pakistan becomes engulfed in chaos, there is a real chance that its nuclear weapons will fall into the hands of extremists determined to kill as many Americans as they can. Although the public has yet to pay much attention to what is happening in Pakistan and there is nowhere near the level of hysteria that gripped the United States nearly 50 years ago, the prospect of a nuclear weapon from Pakistan exploding on American soil is much higher than a Soviet attack from Cuba ever was. If anything can make one nostalgic for the bad old days of the Cold War, what is happening in Pakistan today is surely it.
It helps to first look back at the Cold War to see why the current nuclear threat from Pakistan is so much worse. To be sure, during the Cold War the United States and the Soviet Union each had some 10,000 nuclear warheads ready to strike each other. Neither the United States nor the Soviet Union could prevent the other from launching a devastating attack, nor could either country defend itself once a strike had been launched. The conflict between communism and capitalism, a series of regional confrontations, and the natural competition between the two strongest states in a bipolar system all threatened to turn the Cold War hot. And yet, a superpower nuclear war never happened. The reason the Soviet Union and the United States never came to nuclear blows is crystal clear: Deterrence worked. The leaders of the Soviet Union and the United States recognized that launching a nuclear attack would be suicidal, and neither leadership embraced death for their countries or themselves.
What is happening today in Pakistan, sadly, is very different. Pakistan has far fewer nuclear weapons -- about a hundred -- than the Soviet Union had during the Cold War. But it is far more likely that one of those weapons will be used against the United States because it is not the government of Pakistan that would order them to be launched. Pakistan hosts a wide range of extreme Islamist groups that seek to harm the United States. Of particular concern are the Taliban and al Qaeda, both of which originated in Pakistan. Both groups are blood enemies of the United States. Al Qaeda in particular has declared its intention to kill between 4 and 10 million Americans as payback for U.S. policies in the Middle East. If al Qaeda acquired a nuclear weapon and smuggled it into an American city, deterrence would be of little use. What threat could be invoked against al Qaeda terrorists to prevent them from killing millions of Americans once they had the capability to do so? Given its fanatical aims, lack of a "return address," and embrace of death, it is difficult if not impossible to conceive of a threat that would dissuade al Qaeda or a similar group from carrying out its horrific mission the way the Soviet Union was deterred during the Cold War.
The key, then, is to prevent extremist groups such as al Qaeda from getting control of a nuclear weapon in the first place. The good news is that nuclear weapons are not easy to make. They require fissile material such as plutonium or highly enriched uranium, which is beyond the capability of any group, including the Taliban and al Qaeda, to manufacture on its own. The only way for nonstate actors to get a nuclear weapon is acquiring one from a country that has one, and the most likely country where that would happen is Pakistan.
Even before the present crisis, Pakistan had been a hotbed of instability. Much of Pakistan's population is dirt poor; separatist movements have been active throughout the country; half of its people are illiterate; Islamists have penetrated the military; and the government has never exercised control over vast portions of its territory. Democracy has come and gone, with no elected government ever succeeding another. Pakistan has already experienced a horrendous civil war, and it remains the only nuclear-armed state to have experienced a successful coup.
As bad as the situation has been in the past, it has never been worse than it is today. The Taliban has moved from its sanctuaries along the Afghan-Pakistani border to come within 60 miles of the capital city of Islamabad. No longer members of a fringe movement, Taliban fighters have linked up with al Qaeda and other extreme Islamist movements in Punjab, Pakistan's most important province. The combination of the Taliban's local appeal with al Qaeda's global reach presents a nightmarish threat for the United States and much of the rest of the world. The threat is not so much that the Taliban and al Qaeda will take over Pakistan or that the state will collapse. The Pakistani military is probably too powerful for that to occur -- at least for now. Rather, the danger is of continued, escalating violence engulfing ever larger portions of Pakistan, with the government increasingly unable to restore control.
A Pakistan plunged into chaos raises the threat that its nuclear weapons might fall into the hands of those who would use them against the United States or its allies. This scenario could come about in several ways.
First, though safe for the time being, the Pakistani government might eventually fall victim to the Taliban onslaught, raising the prospect of a jihadi, nuclear-armed state. Maybe the United States could deter an al Qaeda-Taliban regime from launching a nuclear attack (it would have a return address), but maybe not. Fanatics like the Taliban and al Qaeda are not easily dissuaded.
Second, the weapons might be seized by the Taliban, al Qaeda, or some other extremist group. Such a seizure is most likely when the nuclear weapons are taken from their facilities, assembled, and moved around, as is the case when Pakistan fears a disarming strike from India. One can imagine jihadists deliberately provoking a crisis with India (à la the 2008 Mumbai attacks) precisely to get the nuclear weapons on the road, where they can be grabbed. One can also envision some variant of the above. A Taliban government, infused with religious fervor, might simply give the nuclear weapons to al Qaeda or some similar group for use against the United States, Israel, or India. A collapsing Pakistan might encourage security personnel to sell the weapons they are guarding, to wrest some profit from an otherwise dismal future. A Pakistan engulfed in crisis might simply be unable to defeat a determined assault on its nuclear arsenal, especially if the attackers have inside help. Once seized, it would be child's play to smuggle the weapons into an American city (just think of the tons of drugs brought into the United States each day). Whatever the scenario, the prospect of Pakistani nuclear weapons falling into the hands of religious terrorists is a nightmare no American wants to face.
The leadership of the United States recognizes the seriousness of the Pakistani threat, but has not figured out what to do about it. The United States provided Pakistan with a $100 million program to secure its nuclear arms, but it's unclear how Pakistan spent the money and whether what it did had any effect. Constraining U.S. efforts are Pakistani suspicions that the more the United States knows about its arsenal, the greater the likelihood that the United States will destroy or seize Pakistani nuclear arms in the event of a crisis. As a result, the United States does not know where all of Pakistan's nuclear weapons are located. Nor has the United States placed "permissive action links" (PALs) -- ATM-like locks for which one must know the code to arm the nuclear weapon -- on Pakistani nuclear weapons. The Pakistanis are concerned that any U.S. device placed on their weapons would be able to reveal their locations or disarm them remotely. As such, if a Pakistani nuclear weapon is stolen, the thieves might well be able to detonate it. Nor can the United States ensure that the right people are developing and guarding the nuclear weapons. The Pakistanis have told the Americans that they are careful in the selection of their nuclear technicians and guards, but who knows whether they are telling the truth or whether the Pakistani government is even capable of monitoring its personnel. It is worth remembering that the notorious Pakistani arms dealer A.Q. Khan sold sensitive nuclear technology to Iran, Libya, and North Korea under the very noses of those who were supposed to supervise his activities.
What then can the United States do to reduce the threat from Pakistan? Washington must first do more to mitigate the tensions between India and Pakistan, thus encouraging the Pakistanis to redirect their military away from the Indian threat and toward the more pressing dangers posed by the Taliban. The United States must be more creative in ways that might help the Pakistanis ensure the security of their arsenal, including assisting them with better command-and-control procedures and safer deployment options for their nuclear forces (thus avoiding a hair-trigger posture). For the long term, the United States can work to build up the Pakistani state, improve Pakistan's education system, enhance its economy (through the elimination of tariffs on Pakistani textiles), and subtly convince the Pakistanis that the moderate Islam for which the country is known is the best path.
Although all of these steps are necessary, none will end the threat of a Pakistani nuclear weapon falling into the wrong hands. So what the United States must do is confront the awful possibility that the Taliban or al Qaeda might one day get its hands on a Pakistani nuclear weapon. To prepare for that contingency, Washington must do more to learn where the Pakistani nuclear arms are located (to destroy or seize them), do a better job at preventing the smuggling of nuclear weapons, and, most horribly, prepare for the nightmare of losing an American city to a Pakistani bomb. That means issues such as continuity of government and public health plans must be made now, for "the day after." It also means that Washington must do better at determining the source of a nuclear explosion and think seriously about how to react if one occurs. Lashing out at Pakistan, especially if the regime was not behind the attack, makes little sense. Learning from the Pakistanis just how many weapons went missing, how it happened, and whether it could happen again might not be as emotionally satisfying as a counterstrike, but makes more sense.
Even during the worst days of the Cold War, Americans and Soviets recognized that a nuclear strike would be folly. The same is not true for the groups that are poised to seize Pakistani nuclear weapons. With luck, we may all survive this crisis. But that does not change the realization that an American city faces a far greater threat of nuclear destruction from a wayward Pakistani nuclear weapon than it ever did from a deliberate Soviet attack.
Steven R. David is professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University. His most recent book is Catastrophic Consequences: Civil Wars and American Interests.