Friday, March 13, 2009

13 March 2009

Early Bird summary
Friday’s Early Bird leads with an item from Bloomberg.com reporting that Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he is “extremely concerned” by the political crisis in nuclear-armed Pakistan and that officials are closely monitoring opposition protests there.The situation “continues to deteriorate very, very slowly under a political leadership which is very challenged because of the totality of the crisis,” Mullen said in an interview with PBS’s Charlie Rose broadcast late yesterday.President Asif Ali Zardari is trying to quell protests by the main opposition party and lawyers demanding he reinstate judges fired by former military ruler Pervez Musharraf in 2007. His government is struggling against a slumping economy and trying to control Taliban and al-Qaeda linked militants who have seized broad swathes of Pakistani territory in recent months. A full transcript of the interview with Adm. Mullen is available at this link.
The emerging outlines of President Obama’s plan for Afghanistan include proposals to shift more American efforts toward problems in neighboring Pakistan and to seek some kind of political reconciliation with the vast majority of insurgents in the region, according to administration officials, according to the New York Times.The plan reflects in part a conclusion within the administration that most of the insurgent foot soldiers in Afghanistan and Pakistan are “reconcilable” and can be pried away from the hard-core organizations of the Taliban and Al Qaeda. At least 70 percent of the insurgents, and possibly more, can be encouraged to lay down their arms with the proper incentives, administration officials have said.
Visiting Iranian Vice President Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei said Thursday that his government welcomes multilateral talks with the United States and its allies on Afghanistan, according to the Washington Times.But, he added, Tehran has yet to receive an official invitation from the Obama administration or Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton."We have received some news about Mrs. Clinton's overtures, but we have not received an official invitation to any summit," he said through an interpreter during an unofficial visit to Canada.
The Los Angeles Times reports that a military judge on Thursday refused a request from prosecutors for access to un-aired portions of a CBS "60 Minutes" interview with Staff Sgt. Frank Wuterich for use in Wuterich's court-martial stemming from the killing of civilians in Haditha, Iraq.Lt. Col. Jeffrey Meeks sided with the network and quashed the prosecutors' subpoena. Prosecutors had argued that laws shielding reporters from disclosing unpublished or un-aired portions of interviews do not apply to military court.Wuterich is charged with voluntary manslaughter, reckless endangerment and dereliction of duty stemming from a Nov. 19, 2005, shooting in which 24 civilians were killed.Of eight Marines charged in the incident, only Wuterich has yet to have his case resolved. Six Marines had the charges dismissed, and one was found not guilty.The Marine Corps is appealing a judge's order dismissing charges against Lt. Col. Jeffrey Chessani, the battalion commander.
A House resolution condemning Beijing for a clash between Chinese vessels and a U.S. Navy ship last weekend threatens to up the ante at the high-profile first meeting of President Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao next month, the Washington Times reports.The White House has sought to downplay the international dust-up, but the resolution introduced Thursday by Rep. J. Randy Forbes likely will keep the incident at the fore.“What it does is give the president more ammunition to say to President Hu that this is something the American people care about,” said Mr. Forbes, Virginia Republican. “This resolution will send that message very, very strongly.”
The Arizona Daily Star reports that costs are likely to keep growing for two of the Pentagon's biggest weapons programs as the military pushes to field fighter jets and high-tech Army units even before fully proving the technology, according to Government Accountability Office reports released Thursday.The reports by the government watchdog agency concluded the Army is moving forward with the $159 billion Future Combat Systems program even though some of its technology is unproven and over budget. The Joint Strike Fighter program, which could ultimately cost $1 trillion to build and maintain roughly 2,500 planes, will face even higher costs if the Pentagon accelerates the program while testing continues.
Media summary
1. Leading newspaper headlines: The New York Times and Washington Post lead with another good day on Wall Street as investors seemed desperate to turn anything that could be interpreted as good news into an excuse to buy. (Slate Magazine)
2. Drone kills 24 Pakistan Taliban: Missiles fired by an unmanned US drone have killed at least 24 people in Pakistan's Kurram tribal region near the Afghan border, officials have said. (BBC)
3. Talking to the Afghan Taliban: US President Barack Obama has been devising a new strategy to tackle the Taleban threat in Afghanistan and has not ruled out some "tactical" negotiations to undermine the insurgency. (BBC)
Leading newspaper headlines

The New York Times and Washington Post lead with another good day on Wall Street as investors seemed desperate to turn anything that could be interpreted as good news into an excuse to buy. "The news, by and large, was bad—just not quite as bad as feared," notes the NYT. In what was the second major rally of the week, the Dow Jones industrial average surged 3.5 percent. The Dow has gained 9.5 percent since Monday, while the broader S&P 500 increased 11 percent. Despite these impressive numbers, no one is ready to declare an end to the bear market, and new data from the Federal Reserve illustrated just how much the markets would have to gain in order to restore all the wealth that American families lost in the last year.

The Wall Street Journal banners, and the Los Angeles Times devotes its top nonlocal spot to, inmate No. 61727-054, aka Bernard Madoff. The disgraced financier pleaded guilty to 11 felony charges and publicly discussed for the first time how he carried out the biggest fraud in Wall Street's history before the judge revoked Madoff's bail and sent him to jail to wait for the June 16 sentencing. "I am painfully aware that I have deeply hurt many, many people," Madoff said. "I cannot adequately express how sorry I am for what I have done." Everyone talks to some of Madoff's victims who attended the hearing. While many said they were glad to see him in handcuffs, they emphasized that there are still many unanswered questions they want to see resolved. USA Today leads with a new report by the Government Accountability Office that says fraud and abuse were partly to blame for the 44 percent increase in Medicare spending on home health services over five years. From 2002 to 2006, people using the home health services increased 17 percent, and the price tag reached $13 billion. The spending increase has continued, and last year Medicare devoted around $16.5 billion to in-home services.
The Fed reported yesterday that American households saw their net worth decline by $11 trillion, or 18 percent, in 2008, "a decline in a single year that equals the combined annual output of Germany, Japan and the U.K.," details the WSJ. Almost half of that, or $5.1 trillion, was lost in the last three months of 2008. These numbers make previous downturns seem like a walk in the park. In 2002, the next biggest annual decline, household net worth dropped a comparatively tiny 3 percent. "The new data underlined just how quickly wealth created during the biggest credit bubble in history has vanished," says the Post, "leaving Americans without the college funds, nest eggs and other reserves they had set aside."
Still, investors seemed ready to feel a bit optimistic yesterday even if the developments that led to this surge of hope "would have been regarded as alarming" only a few months ago, notes the NYT. Shares of General Electric increased 13 percent even though its credit rating fell by one notch for the first time since 1956. Turns out, analysts were expecting it to be worse. General Motors said it wouldn't immediately need the $2 billion in government assistance for March it had requested, and its shares surged 17 percent. Financial stocks continued on their upward trend after Bank of America reported that it managed to make some money in the first two months of the year. The retail sector also received a much-needed boost after the Commerce Department noted that sales were down 0.1 percent from January, which was better than many had expected.
Despite the recent upward trend, experts warned that investors shouldn't be feeling too bullish, particularly since this week's rally looks an awful lot like the increases that began in November and led the S&P 500 to surge 24 percent before plunging again this year. "There is nothing new here, every serious bear market has rallies like this," an analyst tells the NYT. The WP points out that the encouraging news from the retail sector doesn't change the fact that companies are still having trouble getting rid of excess inventory, which means most won't be expanding anytime soon. "It's too early to uncork the champagne," an economist tells the Post.
When Madoff acknowledged his guilt publicly for the first time, he gave some details of his Ponzi scheme that conflicted with what prosecutors have said. Madoff said his scheme began in the early 1990s—prosecutors say it started in the 1980s—when he felt pressured to give investors good returns despite the weak stock market, and Madoff emphasized that it all quickly spiraled out of control. "When I began the Ponzi scheme I believed it would end shortly and I would be able to extricate myself and my clients from the scheme," he told the court. "However, this proved difficult and ultimately impossible." As time went on and the scheme got bigger, "I realized this day, and my arrest, would inevitably come," Madoff added. Madoff insisted none of his family members helped him pull off the fraud and didn't reveal any information that shed light into where all the money has gone.
The prosecutor handling the case said the government will continue to investigate the case to try to shed light on how the scheme was carried out, but the LAT says some "are skeptical that prosecutors will be able to piece together a fraud of such magnitude." For now, Madoff will spend his time in the Metropolitan Correctional Center. The WSJ describes the living conditions Madoff will have to endure, noting that "typical cells at the corrections center house two inmates and are 7 feet by 8 feet with a bunk bed, sink, desk and toilet."
When journalists from the mainstream media crowded outside the Manhattan courtroom to catch a glimpse of Madoff, they weren't just joined by his victims but also by members of the tabloid media. The NYT fronts a look at how the tabloid media that are normally focused on the daily travails of celebrities have now taken a great interest in corporate America's excesses. Motivated by the deep populist anger that Americans are feeling toward Wall Street, these media outlets are devoting lots of effort to documenting what many would consider to be improper use of taxpayer money. And tabloids aren't the only ones getting into the act. Network news organizations are also devoting lots of effort to catching examples of excessive spending by corporate titans.
The NYT points out that Obama "is being forced" to figure out whether he supports awarding health insurance benefits to the same-sex partners of federal employees. Two federal appeals judges in California have said their employees were entitled to the benefit, but the Office of Personnel Management has said that's not possible because of the Defense of Marriage Act. Obama has always said he doesn't support marriage for same-sex couples but during the campaign vowed to "fight hard" for gay rights and sponsored legislation as a senator to award health benefits to the same-sex spouses of federal employees. But it's unclear whether Obama will want to get involved in such a politically and socially contentious issue so early in his presidency.
Everyone reports that the Iraqi journalist who threw his shoes at President George Bush during a news conference in December was convicted of assaulting a foreign leader and sentenced to three years in prison.
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Drone 'kills 24 Pakistan Taleban'
Missiles fired by an unmanned US drone have killed at least 24 people in Pakistan's Kurram tribal region near the Afghan border, officials have said.
Local officials said the dead were local Taleban and that the toll may rise. Thirty others were injured.
Correspondents say this is the fifth drone attack on Pakistani territory since Barack Obama became US president.
Pakistan is critical of the tactic because, it says, civilians are often killed, fuelling support for militants.
The target of the missile attack on Thursday night was a training camp run by a local Taleban commander.
The camp in the Brijo area is located some 20km from Pakistan's border with Afghanistan.
Hostages
Local officials told the BBC Urdu Service that a drone fired four missiles into the camp, a huge compound with five rooms which served as a weapons store, meeting place and lodging for the local Taleban.
It was being run by Commander Fazal Saeed, who was present, along with 57 others, during the missile attack. Officials said that the commander escaped unharmed.
Pakistan is critical of the US drone tactic
Taleban guards said that some of those in the camp were hostages the Taleban were holding.
Witnesses said people living in the area turned off their lights following the blasts to avoid being targeted by missiles.
They said the entire Taleban compound was set on fire and that announcements were made using mosque loudspeakers in the area urging people not to approach the camp for fear of more drone attacks.
Last month, a missile strike in the same area targeted a suspected Taleban training facility.
Missile strikes by unmanned drone spy aircraft have mostly targeted foreign fighters in the Waziristan region over the past couple of years.
The BBC's Ilyas Khan in Islamabad says the strikes are now also targeting facilities run by local or Afghan Taleban in the lower Kurram region, from where attacks have been launched into the Khost and Paktia provinces of Afghanistan.
The southern parts of the lower Kurram region share borders with Afghanistan's Khost province, where US and coalition forces have major deployments of forces.
The US does not confirm drone attacks but no other countries have the power to deploy such weapons in the region.


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Talking to the Afghan Taleban
Will the Taleban leaders negotiate before all Western troops go?
US President Barack Obama has been devising a new strategy to tackle the Taleban threat in Afghanistan and has not ruled out some "tactical" negotiations to undermine the insurgency. Here BBC security correspondent Gordon Corera, in Kabul, discusses how engaging the militants might work.
On a desk in his study sits a book by Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef - a memoir in French of his time as a detainee in Guantanamo.
Before the fall of the Taleban government in 2001, Mullah Zaeef was its ambassador to Pakistan.
After being picked up, he spent three years in US detention. He now lives on the outskirts of Kabul in a building with armed guards, no doubt partly to protect him and partly to keep an eye on him.
The mullah is an advocate of negotiations between the Taleban and the Afghan government and even with the US but only under the right conditions.
There is suspicion, he tells me, on the Taleban side that the purpose of talks is simply to weaken and divide the movement.
Among the conditions the Taleban want are the lifting of UN sanctions against Taleban leaders and a guarantee of their security.
Negotiations clearly require a partner and Mullah Zaeef, perhaps unsurprisingly, argues that the Taleban are a strong and coherent movement, one that has set up what he calls a "shadow government" providing justice in large parts of the country.
There have been internal reports over whether to negotiate and what position to take, particularly whether all foreign troops would have to leave before they stopped fighting, or whether some kind of commitment or timetable would be enough.
'Real leader'
The Taleban movement is still controlled by Mullah Omar, Mullah Zaeef argues.
"He is the real leader and still has control of the Taleban. There is no other leader to compare or be instead of him," he tells me, explaining that Mullah Omar recently ordered a new commander into Kandahar, moving the Kandahar commander to Jalalabad, communicating through spoken messages relayed through the country and occasionally letters.
Mullah Zaeef favours talks - in the right conditions
In theory there may be only one leader for the Taleban but most analysts accept that the insurgency is composed of a kaleidoscope of moving pieces.
Some who fight are opportunistic, doing it for the money, others are more ideological.
In the south, the Quetta Shura and Mullah Omar predominate and they are said to be focused on the traditional aim of getting rid of foreign troops and imposing Islamic Sharia law.
But in the east, those fighting have closer links to Waziristan in Pakistan and also the foreign fighters linked to al-Qaeda.
There are other groups, like that of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who is currently fighting the US but who some believe might be amenable to a deal.
Some talks between figures close to the Afghan government and close to the Taleban have taken place under the guidance of Saudi Arabia, a country with the status and influence to bring different parties together.
In what is seen as a significant move, the Saudi intelligence chief also came to Kabul and visited other capitals as part of the initiative.
Obama comparisons
One of the key movers in those talks is Abdullah Anas, a well-connected former mujahideen who fought the Soviets in the 1980s.
He argues that in the past 30 years, Afghanistan's neighbours as well as other countries have sought to pursue their own agendas by using different factions and groups within the country to dominate at the exclusion of others.
"Everyone is trying to make it their own. After 30 years none of them won Afghanistan. They destroyed Afghanistan," he tells me, arguing that only a political process that accepts a role for all Afghan groups will provide any stability.
Militant groups in Afghanistan are very fractured
Western governments have been involved in their own "reconciliation" programmes trying to peel off local Taleban commanders and officials.
But after two foreign diplomats were accused of unauthorised attempts to negotiate in late 2007 (contacts which the diplomats maintain were with the agreement of the government), there has been a recognition that the Afghan government has to take the lead in this process.
President Hamid Karzai has openly talked of negotiation but critics are unsure how far this is about shoring up support in the south of the country ahead of this year's presidential election.
There is also a fundamental difference between a wider strategic dialogue and using negotiation as a local tactic to try to divide and undermine the insurgency by buying off more malleable local commanders.
In his comments over the weekend with comparisons to Iraq, US President Barack Obama seemed to suggest that it was the latter that was more likely to form part of the new strategy.
"There may be some comparable opportunities in Afghanistan and in the Pakistani region," he said but acknowledged that while this worked in Iraq, the dynamics in Afghanistan were different.
In the short term though, it is local level reconciliation or negotiation that is most likely to meet with success, although the focus on dividing the Taleban may also increase distrust among Taleban leaders about US intentions, reducing their willingness to engage in broader talks.
'Wrong country'
The US is clearly now willing to talk about talks, though, and is publicly supportive of Afghan attempts at reconciliation.
"We encourage it," explained Chris Dell, number two at the US Embassy in Kabul. "But we recognise it has to be led by the Afghans themselves, because the issues are Afghan. They are issues among brothers."
President Karzai has openly talked of negotiations
In the early days, the US military talked of "AQT" - referring to al-Qaeda and the Taleban as a single entity.
But they were not a single entity before 9/11 and have not been so afterwards despite undoubted alliances at different times and in different places.
And so now, talks with the Taleban do look more of a possibility, although it will require a careful recalibration of the public justification of engagement in Afghanistan. It has been based around removing the Taleban to deny a sanctuary for al-Qaeda.
The upcoming US strategic review is also certain to focus on a broader regional strategy and the central importance of Pakistan.
Western diplomats make clear that the single change that would put most pressure on the Taleban would be the denial of their sanctuaries and safe havens over the border in Pakistan.
A few voices in Washington even say the fight against the Taleban in Afghanistan is a case of "wrong enemy, wrong country".
In other words, the US should really be fighting al-Qaeda in Pakistan.
Cutting deals with the Taleban in Afghanistan may also look slightly awkward when the US has been critical of the deals that Pakistan has struck with the Taleban in its own territory.
The US strategy and troops reinforcements may in part be designed to change the dynamics and place the US in a stronger position to negotiate.
Going to the table now may look like a sign of weakness and reinforce the Taleban's belief that the US and allies lack the will to stay and fight.
There may also be challenges for Western governments in selling the idea of talks to their population, especially as soldiers continue to die in the conflict.
The Taleban, too, have to worry about their support and any perception of weakness.
So while there is much talk about negotiations, there is little sign they will make substantive progress for some time.

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